Finch Sells | Affiliate Marketing Blog

Statistical Significance vs. Affiliate Gut Instinct

Nov 22 2011

How much money are you willing to lose before striking profitability?

This seems to be the question that pops up on IM forums at least once per week, presumably because there is no set in stone answer.

Should I spend $50? $100? Two times the payout? Or should I just sling balls to the wind and let the campaign run for 24 hours?

Most of the advice given in response to these questions touches on the importance of statistical significance. Now, while in the real marketing world, budgets tend to permit the wisdom of waiting for statistical significance, I have to question the validity of the advice when you’re feeding it to a newbie affiliate with $100 in his bank account.

I had to look twice at a comment from one particular forum member stating that “it’s impossible to draw any reasonable conclusion from a campaign without 1000 clicks in the can“. Seriously, 1000 clicks? If I go 1000 clicks without a conversion, I have a fucking stroke and murder six kittens.

I admire the resilience, but I’m not going to lie, there have been many occasions where I’ve pulled the plug on campaigns after as little as 15 clicks. However, in these cases, it wasn’t a lack of respect for statistics that was pulling the trigger. It was a gut instinct.

Sometimes, no matter what the lab rats say, it’s possible to get a feel for an offer’s potential from a very limited set of data. There are several external factors that play in to this gut instinct.

The offer may have bombed in the past, or it may have been sitting on the network for months and yet never received a mention in the regular newsletters. Maybe – like myself – you’re simply not used to going 15 clicks without a conversion on a dating offer, and don’t like it.

You could also have many subconscious reservations about the campaign (“Hmm, well I’ve heard bad things about using Google Translate but I do want to get it live today…“), or simply the underlying feeling that the maths aren’t going to add up in your favour.

I will be the first to admit that adopting such a shotgun approach to managing campaigns has probably cost me money in the past. But it’s also saved me a lot of money that would have otherwise been splurged waiting for statistical significance to confirm what I already knew.

If you are new to affiliate marketing, yes, it’s true, you really do need to be serious about testing and tracking your campaigns. But you also have to develop a personal kind of AI – Affiliate Intelligence – which is an unfathomable knack for anticipating how a campaign will pan out before you’ve wasted the hundreds of dollars necessary to scientifically prove it so.

You also have to apply some good old fashioned common sense in how you’re actually spending your test budget.

While many of the biggest media buyers will be quite happy to spunk a few thousand dollars on display campaigns, I find the idea of testing and losing that much money on self-serve platforms like Plentyoffish or Facebook to be a major no-no.

I just don’t understand how it can happen.

Fair enough, if you invest $2000 and fail to break even, that’s an unfortunate but somewhat predictable plight. But if you invest $2000 and make practically zero in return, your problem isn’t a question of stumbling across the wrong campaign. Your problem is a monumental failure in finding the pause button. It’s inexcusable.

Nobody, and I repeat nobody, should be losing $2000 on traffic sources like Facebook or Plentyoffish. Investing $2000? Yes, perhaps, but losing it all? You’re doing it wrong. I can’t say what exactly, but you clearly took the advice of “not refreshing stats all day” too literally.

Recommended This Week

If you don’t have tracking software, I strongly recommend you pick up a copy of CPV Lab. We’ve been waiting on updates to the Lab for a while now, but it’s still a fine hunk of software that can only improve your chances of affiliate success. Just remember to heed your gut instincts too.
For those of you who advertise on Facebook, Premium Posts Volume 2 splurges over 70 pages of my tips, techniques and strategies for conquering Zuckerberg’s monster. Reviews so far have generally been that the Posts are better than sex, so please do check them out.
If you’re a new reader, please add me to your RSS. Also follow me on Twitter. Thanks for reading.

What Runs Where Review – 100% Verified Data Whoring Machine

Nov 18 2011

How do I even begin to review What Runs Where? This is the rabbit hole of all software releases for 2011.

I’ll start by giving you the basics. What Runs Where is a competitive intelligence service for online media buyers. The hook is to discover new traffic sources, to become more efficient at monetizing your existing campaigns, and to open your eyes to a simply mind-boggling data dump of what your competitors are up to.

Spying on competition seems to be one of 2011’s hottest angles for marketing products. I’ve already reviewed several other products, all aiming to make our ‘creative process’ less troublesome. The difference with What Runs Where is scale.

It all looked so simple when I first logged in.

A nicely tiled interface allowing me to search through the most popular (and most relevant) adverts on 18 of the largest display networks – as well as 6 text ad networks.

And then I clicked through to view some data. And then I clicked through to view some more data. Before you know it, I’ve clicked through about seven times and the What Runs Where software is tracing everything from the entire banner portfolio of True.com, to the exact eye colour of the bastard who keeps outbidding me on TribalFusion.

This thing is a well oiled data whoring machine. And there lies it’s greatest strength and biggest weakness. To get the most out of What Runs Where, you have to be able to handle lots of data. You have to practically thrive on it like some kind of sick perverted numbers freak. There’s a lot to take in, and I can see how the fledgling baby affiliate could be swept under within minutes.

Let’s take a look at what you can analyse…

If you’re short on inspiration, you can use the What Runs Where system as a means of researching the most popular banner ads by strength, relevancy or recency on any of the following platforms:

Google Image Ads, 247 Real Media, ContextWeb, ValueClick, Tribal Fusion, Blue Lithium, BuySellAds, Rubicon Project, Adbrite, Technorati Media, Burst Media, Advertising.com, Interclick, Zedo, XTend Media, Undertone Ads, Specific Media and Harren Media.

And then you have your popular text ad platforms:

Adwords Content Network, MSN Content Network, Adside, Pulse360, AdBlade, Adsonar.

I know many affiliates feel naked and lost if they’re forced out of their comfort zone (Facebook and Plentyoffish), but these traffic sources are where the big money is made – particularly if you’re dabbling in rebills.

If you’re in research mode, you can use What Runs Where to assess the ads that are likely to work on each of those traffic sources. But that would be purely skimming the surface. The real value, in my opinion, is in the ability to perform searches for particular advertisers and to see the most popular placements on any given site.

If I run a search for True.com, I can uncover a huge number of banners that have been used to promote the site. Here’s a tiny sample:

What Runs Where Review 1

Fair enough, it’s nice to see which banners are popular. But what I really want to see is the traffic sources and specific placements that have proven to be the most successful over time.

What Runs Where Review 2

What Runs Where 3

This information gives me some food for thought over suitable placements in a similar campaign. Christ, if I was running PPV, I’d have more than enough targets to keep myself busy. But it’s not quite giving me the complete picture. How do I know which ads are most suitable for each placement?

Now where the data really gets interesting is when you start cross-checking ads that have appeared in a particular placement. Let’s say I want to buy some banner space on TheFreeSite.com, I can use What Runs Where to perform a seperate placement analysis.

What Runs Where Review 4

(I’ve purposefully chosen a very broad target…)

This gives me the breakdown of just about every advertiser that has been spotted on the site. If I want to see more recent placements, I can adjust the slider. I can also view the top banner ads on this single placement, as well as the strongest ad texts. Has one banner been hogging 50% of the impressions? What traffic source does it come from? All this data is at my fingertips, and it’s enough to make me slightly nauseous.

The data pool is truly gigantic. You can easily lose a couple of hours sifting through it.

So what can be improved?

The software currently tracks ads in four countries: United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. This should keep most of you happy. But for advertisers like myself – those who have departed the popular English speaking regions in favour of dirty Eurotrash campaigns and the odd cheeky Brazilian – I would definitely like to see some Euro inventory added.

I also think the interface could be given a once-over and sprinkled with some explanations of how scores are calculated. Strength is annotated as a number, and while I’m sure the tech guys have perfectly valid logic in ranking the ads as they do, it could be made clearer.

Much of the data meaning has to be assessed relatively by looking at more data. If the team could find a way of leading lambs such as myself to the ‘opportunities’ rather than more numbers, it would open up the software to a whole new realm of buyers. They have a hell of a lot of features, it’s just rebranding a few of them as benefits that will convert this thing in to an unslayable savage donkey beast.

What Runs Where isn’t going to turn a bad affiliate marketer in to a rich affiliate marketer. You’re kidding yourself if you buy this thing expecting it to churn out profitable campaigns while you swing lackadaisically in the hammock.

And while it is by far the most sophisticated ad spying software I’ve yet to come across, it’s also tied to the same limitations as it’s many rivals – you, the user, have to turn that data in to a competitive advantage. It won’t appear by magic.

If I had to pull a metaphor out of my arse, I would compare the software to a very deep bucket full of jigsaw pieces. Inside, you will find just about every component of that one lucrative campaign you’ve always dreamed of. But to put the pieces together, you’re going to have to insert yourself balls-deep in to a matrix of data – some of which will take you a few days to properly understand.

If you’re a regular media buyer, or looking to venture that way, What Runs Where is a must-have. I’d recommend it to intermediate affiliates, and anybody with an interest in display advertising.

The Good News…

Now, you may have already heard, but What Runs Where has just opened up a special $1 trial package. If you have any doubts, or simply want to take the software for a test spin, quit reading my drivel and go see it for yourself. Best of British to you, have a good weekend!

Recommended This Week

For those of you who advertise on Facebook, Premium Posts Volume 2 splurges over 70 pages of my tips, techniques and strategies for conquering Zuckerberg’s monster. I’m confident you’ll get a lot out of it, including some much better traffic sources for our gaming offer example above!
If you’re a new reader, please add me to your RSS. Also follow me on Twitter. Thanks for reading.

How The 80/20 Rule Applies To You

Nov 16 2011

It’s not rare to find that 80% of your sales are generated by 20% of your customers, or that 80% of your time is spent handling 20% of your chores.

This skewed outlook on life and business was first observed by the great Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto, who lent his name to the theory.

Pareto established, in the early twentieth century, that 80% of Italian land was owned by just 20% of the population. He later famously observed that 80% of the peas in his garden came from 20% of the pods. Spurred on by the unusual correlation, his work continued and the Pareto Principle became lodged not just in economic folklore, but in business minds alike.

By running a business that is effectively a one man show, I have become a great believer in the Pareto Principle.

I’m convinced it can be applied to productivity. The principle is a great marker for ensuring I don’t become bogged down in tasks that waste my limited time.

I don’t think I’m alone in confessing that when I look at my to-do list, I can easily find tasks that satisfy my need to appear busy; tasks that contribute very little to my bottom line.

As an Internet Marketer, I often find myself profiting from one particularly lucrative advertising campaign. On a good day, it makes my other efforts look like a complete waste of time. If the lucrative campaign earns more than the rest of my work combined, why would I insist on wasting 80% of my time chasing those dead ends?

Probably because seeing the skewed reality is one thing. Acting on it is completely another.

The desire to appear busy is something that has been ingrained in us since childhood. Can you imagine the uproar at school had you refused to go to 80% of your classes? Or the backlash from your employer if you only worked 2 hours of your contracted 8?

Where our productivity is concerned, we are highly trained animals. To stay busy is better than to look lazy, even if the results are not always as we’d expect in doing so.

Sometimes it’s a welcome relief to step back and analyse where your success is coming from. What work is bringing in the bacon? Which tasks are you splurging blood, sweat and tears over for little reward?

These may seem like stupid questions. But I believe there’s much more potential in becoming a specialist, somebody who plays to his strengths, than a jack of all trades who couldn’t see his skill-set if it slapped him in the tits.

Recommended This Week:

Check out Filthy Rich Mind, a brand new project I’m collaborating on with a couple of other writers in the self-improvement market. It’s a fun project so if you like off-the-wall advice for improving your lifestyle, subscribe here for updates.
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